Analysts see crude around $60 in medium term, to curb India’s import bill

“We believe risks to a strong oil price outlook in the medium term are rising as OPEC+ strategy shifts from ‘managing’ oil prices to ‘protecting market share’,” said Motilal Oswal in its latest report.
Hers is good news for India on the fiscal and balance of payments fronts. Analysts expect crude oil prices to edge lower in the medium term, and settle at as low as $60/barrel early into 2025. This is even as Brent gained nearly 4.5% over the past week, and stayed above $81 during early Friday trade.
The trending down of prices in the medium term is expected on the likely surplus in the global market by 2025 despite the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ decision to continue the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) till September 2024.
“We believe risks to a strong oil price outlook in the medium term are rising as OPEC+ strategy shifts from ‘managing’ oil prices to ‘protecting market share’,” said Motilal Oswal in its latest report. “The shift in strategy is being driven by OPEC+ production stagnating between 42-45 million barrels per day since January 2022 even as US oil production is set to rise 6% in the 2022-2025 period,” it said.